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As we start 2007, senior analysts from Quocirca, one of Europe's most influential IT and communications research and analysis organisations, look at what we can expect to see over the next 12 months, not just in terms of new technologies, but how they are supplied to end users.
Some of the main issues and trends for 2007: IT security firms will get the jitters as new Microsoft platforms roll out
Windows Vista will have a number of security enhancements including embedded protection from worms, viruses and spyware. Many consumers and small business users will consider this level of security, along with the Windows Firewall, to be sufficient for their purposes and will no longer invest in additional desktop security from the likes of McAfee and Symantec or let existing subscriptions lapse. Both have already launched attacks on Microsoft for the Patch Guard technology that protects the Windows kernel from unauthorised code, but the alternative argument is why shouldn't Microsoft embed security in its products? After all, it is Microsoft that gets all the flack when the security of its operating system is breached. With new upgrades, Microsoft gets put to the test
The IT behemoth is going to be launching upgrades for the majority of its product lines in 2007. Rather than rush to buy, companies are now more cautious and will wait before they upgrade. Plus the media are watching Microsoft like hawks. 2007 could be a bumpy ride for Microsoft, but consumers could be the saving grace as they move to Vista. Mobile operators are going to get even hungrier for our business
We've already seen some of the operators start to break ranks with lower cost roaming and free calls - the next step will be true flat-rate pricing, with optional pay as you use value-add services layered on top. While it becomes even harder for mobile operators to make money, consumers will enjoy more choice. But how long is this sustainable?
Converged communications - the headache really begins
The explosion of different means of communication and collaboration, telephone, email, IM, tele/video/web-conferencing, Wikis and blogs - are great news for employees. But for their employers, they represent a logistical nightmare. The corporate challenge is how do you manage this mish-mash of methods? BlackBerry starts to look less like top of the fruit basket
....and more like just one of the bunch. Microsoft will continue to roll out into the mobile enterprise space, but they need another player to have a line-up of Windows mobile devices, which will give it the market impact it needs. 2007 could be the year that happens. Web2.0 hype explodes
The world will realise Web2.0 does not actually solve anything, nor provide massive changes in the way that people interact. AJAX creates a richer user experience, but little else changes. "Social Networks" coalesce and collapse
...leaving the spoils to existing big players, such as Google and Microsoft. But the idea of social networks will continue, because they consume computer power and decrease travel, meaning that they have both business and environmental benefits. Business Intelligence comes of age - but watch out for the pitfalls
The need for "real" business intelligence (BI) causes market ructions. The requirement businesses have to draw out real knowledge from underlying documents and data will bring in snake oil, smoke and mirrors vendors with little to offer, but with over-hyped messages. Expect to see further initiatives between BI vendors and enterprise search vendors in an attempt to broaden the accessibility of business data to more users. Search capabilities will also enable users to explore real time information, which will support operational pressures to react faster to changes in the business environment. The combination of enterprise search and BI will enable business users to quickly access data, analysis and reports using a keyword interface, however BI vendors vary in their approach to search. As the market for search and BI evolves, organisations investing in search technology will need to prioritise the applications and data sources where search will add the most value.
Businesses take further control - and look to tooling to help enhance effectiveness and performance
Business Process Management tools morph into Business Performance Management tools, enabling companies to look at how they perform against key performance indicators. Many companies will look to include suppliers and customers in this, leading to a need for standardisation of data exchange formats. Devices continue to proliferate, but businesses suddenly get wise
As mobile devices get smarter and have more memory, companies will suddenly realise that these constitute a massive security risk - and are not covered by existing security policies. The need for solutions will drive a frenzy of announcements from vendors during 2007. The paperless office continues to be a myth
The paperless office has never materialised, and in fact our paper usage will continue to increase due to the proliferation of the Internet, email and digital photography. These markets will continue to represent strong profit opportunities for printer and copier vendors, not only through consumers and business customers investing in colour printers and MFP devices, but through the aftermarket for consumables (both paper media and ink cartridges and paper). High costs of OEM ink will see consumers take advantage of the ever growing availability of lower cost third party inks for inkjet printers. (As long as third-party ink manufacturers don't infringe printer manufacturers' proprietary patents, third party ink offers a cheaper alternative than OEM ink - although print quality may be inferior to using OEM ink). Companies start taking more notice of "green" issues
2007 will see an increase in awareness, investment and action surrounding environmental issues, but will within the overall commercial context. At UK and European levels, government is driving the pace, for example the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) directive and the Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS). Although the UK government is dragging its heels on forcing through compliance, under the terms of the WEEE directive it will eventually be illegal to dump IT equipment unless it is "green" and safe. In terms of equipment, manufacturers are leading the way, for example with multi-core processors that are more energy efficient. Software plays a huge part too: virtualisation and grid computing makes servers far more efficient, meaning that fewer resources are needed. Of course, for companies and vendors there are commercial benefits, such as lowering costs.
Public sector IT still lags behind
We still don't see anything coming along that will significantly improve the way the public sector addresses its IT. Projects will still be too big, the business processes won't be defined properly and users will still not be involved. We will still see the continuance of many politically driven projects that should bite the dust, although there may be some slowdown in initiatives as implications of the Blair-Brown succession work their way through Whitehall. Hosted solutions moves away from 'silos'; and SaaS becomes a reality
The usage of hosted solutions continues to move from the "air locked" solutions of old (payroll, expenses, web hosting, etc), bringing in more of the areas where integration into existing areas is required (for example, CRM, human resources, financial department, email) and where business processes are king. SOA (service oriented architecture) creates the required infrastructure for Software as a Service (SaaS) to be made readily available and for companies of all sizes to access a wealth of new functions that will lead to the greater use of composite solutions.
Quocirca is a leading primary research and analysis company with native language research capabilities across the whole of Europe, along with North America and the Asia Pacific region.
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